THE SINGULARITY IS NEAR PDF
Ray Kurzweil The Singularity Is Near - [Free] Ray Kurzweil The Singularity Is Near [PDF]. [EPUB] Raymond Kurzweil (/? k??r z w a? l. Kurzweil Ray. The Singularity Is Near. Файл формата pdf; размером 2,41 МБ. Добавлен пользователем olka ; Отредактирован . The Singularity Is Near. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend. Biology is a update of.
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NOTE: This PDF document has a handy set of “bookmarks” for it, which are accessible Singularity Is Near is startling in scope and bravado.". Kurzweil's knee can be positioned anywhere depending on the perception of the observer at the time. An exponential (dark gray line) and a logistic (light gray line) fit on world-population data. The graph focuses on the 20th century during which we have accurate and detailed data. The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology is a non-fiction book about .. PDF; Vinge, Vernor (). "Vernor Vinge on the Singularity".
Enter your mobile number or email address below and we'll send you a link to download the free Kindle App. Then you can start reading Kindle books on your smartphone, tablet, or computer - no Kindle device required. To get the free app, enter your mobile phone number. Penguin Books; 1st edition September 22, Publication Date: September 22, Sold by: English ASIN: Enabled X-Ray:
The math starts quickly approaching infinity, which is why it's so weird. Kurzweil co-opts the term for his own purpose here to mean the point in time where artificial intelligence starts exceeding human intelligence.
Thereafter, it takes over its own programming and, being so powerful, does a better and better job of it. Because things are already moving so fast today, the accelerating rate of change means that Kurzweil's Singularity is closer than even optimists might imagine - hence the book's title.
He projects it to occur somewhere in the middle of this century. Afterwards, nothing will ever again be the same. In physics, unimaginable things start happening at singularity points, like energy explosions within black holes.
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Following Kurzweil's Singularity, the most garish science fiction fantasies start becoming commonplace. The combination of genetics, nanotechnology and robotics - which he refers to collectively as GNR - will transform all aspects of human existence.
In other words, robotic copies of human beings - body, mind, memories, and one presumes soul - can be made that will appear indistinguishable from the originals. And for that matter, those originals themselves can be re-shaped at will, giving us all the opportunity to become brilliant, strong, happy, and beautiful.
Kurzweil tells us that artificial circuits replicating themselves at a molecular level will merge with the biological circuits that constitute our nervous systems, giving rise an "enhanced" human super-intelligence. Once this starts happening, what we now call the Internet will in effect become telepathic, giving these enhanced humans instantaneous access to all available knowledge and information as they fashion their brave new world.
You see how explosive this gets? And it's just the beginning. Once the process gets underway, the evolving super-intelligence keeps expanding until it permeates the entire planet and, still accelerating, eventually the universe.
Kurzweil suggests that movement though time-space "wormholes" should one day facilitate rapid travel beyond our own galaxy, taking the process literally everywhere. I realize that my amateur's survey of Kurzweil's thinking here makes him sound like a crank.
However, let there be no mistake: MIT-trained, he's an expert in artificial intelligence and has put his ideas into practice as a successful tech entrepreneur. Most of this book is not even devoted to prognostications, but to an in-depth review of research currently underway that lays the practical groundwork for virtually everything he talks about except maybe the wormhole business.
While he makes numerous leaps of faith in taking us from here to there, none of his forecasts represent sheer fantasy.
He is an extremely good writer, and while staying true to what is in fact pretty complex science, describes it all in a way that makes it reasonably clear to lay readers. For all his hardcore materialism, Kurzweil also has a whimsical streak.
Every 50 pages or so, he breaks up his text with imaginary light-hearted debates among himself appearing as "Ray" , various historical figures - Darwin, Freud, etc. Molly is bright, curious, skeptical, and not in the least bit awed by Ray or the others. The thing about Molly is that she appears in two separate guises: Molly the year this book was being written , and Molly , which is of course well beyond the Singularity.
One of Kurzweil's key forecasts is that future science will learn how to arrest and even reverse the aging process, allowing people more-or-less to live forever at whatever age they choose. So Molly has made it through the Singularity and returned as a still-young woman to speak about it from experience.
Kurzweil is fully aware of the potential downside to his vision. He devotes another even longer chapter to responding to critics, who have attacked his ideas from every possible perspective. While he treats most criticisms respectfully, in the end he largely dismisses them all. One partial exception and the one specific fear he himself does seem to harbor is of self-replicating nanobots. He and other scientists who seriously debate such stuff even have a short-hand term for this specter: The Grey Goo Problem.
Were self-replication somehow to spin out of control, Kurzweil explains to us that in a matter of days it could, in theory, consume the Earth's entire biomass and reduce it to "grey goo". This is indeed a troubling prospect, since this endangered biomass includes all of us. Interestingly, the cluster of criticisms that he responds to most gently are those arising from a spiritualist perspective.
In one of his imaginary debates with "Molly", she repeatedly asks "Ray" if he believes in God. Ray surprises by dodging the question every time rather than saying no.
Kurzweil Ray. The Singularity Is Near [PDF] - Все для студента
Badgered into a corner, he finally avers: He then goes on to explain how his entire vision can be described as a picture of the universe "waking up" as enhanced human intelligence pervades its many corners. Religious people of an unorthodox bent might be tempted to embrace this image as God's self-realization. Fundamentalists of every stripe, however, were they to take K's cosmology seriously at all, would view it with disgust as the self-realization of God's Opposite Number.
For me, the most unnerving question that this book triggers is who will control these accelerating technologies. Reading through many passages of the book, I found it hard not hard to be thinking about Nazi scientists beavering away at the design of their Master Race, or North Korean labs re-programming the neural patterns of citizens lacking enthusiasm for Kim Jong-Un.
Kurzweil seems to trust in the pragmatic good will of the scientific community, buttressed by regulation. However, not all scientists have good will, and he says nothing about who he supposes will regulate the regulators. I also find it hard to see what joy or challenge there could be in a world where machines or enhanced humans dominate everything.
People choosing not to become "enhanced" would either have it forced upon them or face life as a sub-species. The line between utopia and dystopia here is pretty fuzzy, and I find it a little scary that Kurzweil doesn't seem to care.
Maybe I've seen too many science fiction movies. All that aside, I highly recommend this book. Decades ago when I was in college I used to describe about every other book I read as "changing my life", as we said in the day.
Nowadays, no book changes my life, although the best ones still move the needle for me. Whether I like it or not, this one has me looking at things a little differently than I did before. Any review of this book would have to start off by emphasizing that it written by Ray Kurzweil, one of the leading electrical engineers, scientists and tinkerers of the latter 20th century and early 21st century. Not surprisingly, he has an incredibly in-depth knowledge of technology, especially with respect to electrical engineering, that he brings to the table in his book.
He really, really knows his stuff. For many, especially those not interested in technical discussions, this book is not recommended.
For those who are interested in such a discussion this is a book that is very much worth reading. He makes the argument, well based on his in-depth knowledge, that this technology will mark a radical departure not just from the point of technology but in terms of human history and even with respect to what it will mean to be human. He believes that human physiology and technology will so interface that humans will become more cyborg than human and that immortality at least in the de facto sense will be reached.
The book does have a number of problems however that need to be pointed out. One is that his views on AI depend almost entirely on brain emulation and reverse engineering. He does not examine other ways AI may develop that do not parallel the human brain. To him, the mere availability of the technology means it will be adopted. A third problem is that there is little discussion on how technology will influence human institutions.
It may be the case that technology will so undermine these or prevent new ones from emerging in which humans can interact with each other without destroying each other or even functioning effectively with each other.
He seems to forget that the increased lifespan of humanity will also lead to much longer lived Stalin or Maos. Imagine a world where degenerates like these can reign not 20 or 30 years but or Last but not least the most important weakness of the book is the fact that it ignores the very important role that death plays in the evolution of human history through paradigm shifts.
Changes in human institutions and popularity held beliefs i. A vastly increased human lifespan, never mind immortality, would go very far in undermining this. Alfred Adler put it very eloquently in the following quote: People who lived for ever would not only hamper and discourage the young, but they would themselves lack sufficient stimulus to be creative".
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Paths, Dangers, Strategies Kindle Edition. Life 3. Max Tegmark. Fantastic Voyage: Customers who viewed this item also viewed. Live Long Enough to Live Forever. Linda Nagata. Thus Kurzweil concludes it is humanity's destiny to do the saturating, enlisting all matter and energy in the process. As for individual identities during these radical changes, Kurzweil suggests people think of themselves as an evolving pattern rather than a specific collection of molecules.
Kurzweil says evolution moves towards "greater complexity, greater elegance, greater knowledge, greater intelligence, greater beauty, greater creativity, and greater levels of subtle attributes such as love".
That means, he continues, that evolution is moving towards a conception of God and that the transition away from biological roots is in fact a spiritual undertaking. Kurzweil does not include an actual written timeline of the past and future, as he did in The Age of Intelligent Machines and The Age of Spiritual Machines , however he still makes many specific predictions. Kurzweil writes that by a supercomputer will have the computational capacity to emulate human intelligence  and "by around " this same capacity will be available "for one thousand dollars".
Kurzweil Ray. The Singularity Is Near
Kurzweil spells out the date very clearly: A common criticism of the book relates to the "exponential growth fallacy". As an example, in , man landed on the moon. Extrapolating exponential growth from there one would expect huge lunar bases and manned missions to distant planets.
Instead, exploration stalled or even regressed after that. Paul Davies writes "the key point about exponential growth is that it never lasts"  often due to resource constraints. On the other hand, it has been shown that the global acceleration until recently followed a hyperbolic rather than exponential pattern. Theodore Modis says "nothing in nature follows a pure exponential" and suggests the logistic function is a better fit for "a real growth process".
The logistic function looks like an exponential at first but then tapers off and flattens completely. For example, world population and the United States's oil production both appeared to be rising exponentially, but both have leveled off because they were logistic. Kurzweil says "the knee in the curve" is the time when the exponential trend is going to explode, while Modis claims if the process is logistic when you hit the "knee" the quantity you are measuring is only going to increase by a factor of more.
While some critics complain that the law of accelerating returns is not a law of nature  others question the religious motivations or implications of Kurzweil's Singularity. The buildup towards the Singularity is compared with Judeo-Christian end-of-time scenarios.
Beam calls it "a Buck Rogers vision of the hypothetical Christian Rapture". The radical nature of Kurzweil's predictions is often discussed. Anthony Doerr says that before you "dismiss it as techno-zeal" consider that "every day the line between what is human and what is not quite human blurs a bit more".
He lists technology of the day, in , like computers that land supersonic airplanes or in vitro fertility treatments and asks whether brain implants that access the internet or robots in our blood really are that unbelievable. In regard to reverse engineering the brain, neuroscientist David J. Linden writes that "Kurzweil is conflating biological data collection with biological insight".
He feels that data collection might be growing exponentially, but insight is increasing only linearly. For example, the speed and cost of sequencing genomes is also improving exponentially, but our understanding of genetics is growing very slowly. As for nanobots Linden believes the spaces available in the brain for navigation are simply too small. He acknowledges that someday we will fully understand the brain, just not on Kurzweil's timetable.
Paul Davies wrote in Nature that The Singularity is Near is a "breathless romp across the outer reaches of technological possibility" while warning that the "exhilarating speculation is great fun to read, but needs to be taken with a huge dose of salt.
Anthony Doerr in The Boston Globe wrote "Kurzweil's book is surprisingly elaborate, smart, and persuasive.
He writes clean methodical sentences, includes humorous dialogues with characters in the future and past, and uses graphs that are almost always accessible. She observes that he's more focused on optimistic outcomes rather than the risks. Inspired by the book, Ptolemy directed and produced the film Transcendent Man , which went on to bring more attention to the book. Kurzweil has also directed his own adaptation, called The Singularity is Near , which mixes documentary with a science-fiction story involving his robotic avatar Ramona's transformation into an artificial general intelligence.
The movie was released generally on July 20, The film Lucy is roughly based upon the predictions made by Kurzweil about what the year will look like, including the immortality of man.
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.
Dewey Decimal. Main article: Technological singularity.
Predictions made by Ray Kurzweil. Retrieved A re-analysis. Archived from the original on The Boston Globe. The New York Review of Books. A Neruoscientist's View".
Boing Boing. The New York Times. The Singularity is Near. Beginning And End. Retrieved from " https: